The Plot Thickens: Computer Models Finally Agree on Coastal Snowstorm for NYC-Metro and East
From the National Weather Service out of Upton, NY, Saturday night, 7:23 (edited): AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 723 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 MODEL QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST...WITH HALF AN INCH UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS RESULTS IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE 18Z NAM WRF...ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN...WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE AFT ON MON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NW FLANK OF THE STORM COULD PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITION AT TIMES. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHS BOTH MON INTO TUE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING FREEZING AS ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE STORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
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WOWEE, WOW, WOW
Dare I say that the latest NWS discussion hints at some areas getting 15 – 20 inches? They aren’t putting this in their forecast because its a low probability. Needless to say, their current forecast of 8 -12 is hard to believe, b/c that amount of snow is crushing for NYC. For me, I’ll believe it when I see it….and then probably won’t believe what I’m seeing. As for 15 -20 inches…I’d be hallucinating. Regardless, this is truly going to be a “wake up and look out the window” storm. When you wake up, it will be nearly over and what you see is what you get!
OK, so how much did you get? It must be a beautiful sight in Central Park. Today was the first day in 5 years that there was a no school day for kids in NYC. They must be very happy – finally, a snow day
Officially we got around 8 inches in NYC. Not a blockbuster snowstorm for the city, but clearly other places to the east got more. And yes, as I was walking to the subway this morning on 109th and Central Park West, I got a very “19th century” view of the Park — long, gray, spindly branches covered in white.