The Plot Thickens: Computer Models Finally Agree on Coastal Snowstorm for NYC-Metro and East
From the National Weather Service out of Upton, NY, Saturday night, 7:23 (edited): AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 723 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 MODEL QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST...WITH HALF AN INCH UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS RESULTS IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE 18Z NAM WRF...ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN...WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE AFT ON MON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NW FLANK OF THE STORM COULD PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITION AT TIMES. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHS BOTH MON INTO TUE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BREAKING FREEZING AS ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE STORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
The Meteorlogical Crystal Ball: In Search of the Big One — Dare We Believe the Snow Forecast for NYC???
Winter Storm Watches posted for the Tri-State. Do we dare believe them???
Well, it’s been some time since I’ve gazed earnestly into the meteorlogical crystal ball. Looking for a new apartment and moving in New York City will take up most of your time. The good news is that I’ve found a new home — which means that my weather station recordings will now be slightly south of where I was before. “Claremont One” (the name of my weather station) will now be located on West 109th Street, a block from Central Park North. This is a good 23 or so blocks from where I was on Claremont Avenue. It will be interesting to see how closely my readings here will mirror those of the official Central Park readings.
I don’t have my weather station set up here yet, but suffice to say I am itching to get it up and get it up fast! A storm is a-brewing (well, two storms, actually), and I at least want to get my thermo-hydro sensor out there before the weather arrives. Right now the thermo-hydro sensor is still attached to the fire escape outside my former living room window at Claremont. I may have to take a special trip back there today just to get it and then bring it back here and get it set up before tomorrow’s weather arrives.
And what about tomorrow’s weather? Well, all winter long, New Yorkers have been led on and ultimately greatly disappointed by several would-be storms of significance. The computer models for many of these potential coastal snowstorms have been all over the place. I’m beginning to think that a very unusual weather patten has set up that the computer models just can’t handle as well as most weather patterns, so we really don’t know what the outcome with be until about the 12 hour time frame.
Let's not forget about the cold! It's coming! Monday's temperature map. Brrr!
So let’s cut to the chase. The National Weather Service has posted Winter Storm Watches up for all of the Tri-State area (including coastal and Manhattan) for “at least 8 inches of snow” by nightfall Monday. There’s actually two storm systems — one that will hit the area with a round of rain, snow and sleet tonight and Sunday…and then the second storm system is progged to be the more significant one, with mostly snow beginning late Sunday night and lasting into the day on Monday. This is the event that the NWS is saying could deliver the 8 inches plus.
8 inches alone is nothing to sneeze at in New York City. A snow event is significant when only several inches falls here. Get about four inches or so and it becomes memorable. Get into the 6 inch range and it becomes major. 8 inches plus is potentially blockbuster.
Now, we have to take this forecast with more than a grain of salt. In fact, I’d say a whole bag of salt would be more appropriate. We’ve been in the 36 hour time frame from a storm with the same dire predictions, the same watches posted and the same hype. So, as opposed to how I might have reacted previously to a forecast like this, my expectations are exceedingly low.
However, the wording that the NWS out of Upton is using is unusually strong, especially for a weather bureau that hasn’t exactly been hitting home runs lately. For them to make a statement regarding the potential for “at least 8 inches of snow” for NYC-Metro is pretty unusual. One thing does seem certain — whatever will fall will be frozen, and mostly in the form of snow. There is plenty of cold air associated with this event. So no mixing with or turning to rain here.
Finally, there are dissenters at this time to the Big One scenario. The most outspoken dissenter is Elliot Abrams of Accuweather, who keeps his eye on East Coast weather in his blog. Regarding the models calling for big snows here in the northeast, he says:
I suspect fewer people were up when the 6Z (1AM) GFS results started flowing between 4 and 5 AM EST (Saturday). I was looking at maps around 5:15 and discussed the situation with one of our bright and insightful (yes Mark, I am talking about you) snow warning service meteorologists. The 6Z run, and the NMM-WRF run both suggested the heaviest precipitation would fall offshore and that the Philadlelphia to New York City area might get as little as 1 to 3 inches out of the storm that looked so impressive on the earlier run. I typically trust the 00z run more than the later product, but both have scored their victories. Direct link to Elliot Abrams’ blog here.
Incidentally, the “earlier run” he describes is the one on which the National Weather Service has based its Winter Storm Watches.
Flip-flopping models. Sound familiar? Again, only time will tell.
Ok, I guess I do have my hopes up.
Reflections: A Real January Thaw (In February), and I Muse on the Last Snows of New York
Reporting from Guilford, CT tonight, where the weather today has been delightful.
After a long stretch of cold and wintry weather, we have seen very nice reprieve from the arctic chill and any significant precipitation — and, since last week’s “super storm” dud, very little in the way of any storm threats. Thus, very little to talk up on the weather boards for NYC-Metro. Yes, Thursday was quite windy. Honestly, I experienced very little of it. Apart from that, my cursory look at the weather boards over the past couple of weeks has revealed little to get terribly excited about.
And that has actually been kind of a relief. The past couple of weeks have been blindingly busy on my end — so it’s kind of nice that the weather has slowed down to give me room to breath. Up until a couple of weeks ago it looked like the weather was never going to stop making headlines (and, in truth, it really didn’t — that wind did tear up quite a patch of real estate and icy conditions led to the the fatal downing of a plane in Buffalo). But in terms of the weather on the ground here in NYC — well, let’s just say I finally got a bit of sun on my face.
Yes, spring has been in the air. A good, old fashioned January thaw — a bit late, but better late than never! And, boy, does it feel good. Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve lost the gloves, the ear muffs, even the hat! I’ve unbuttoned the top two buttons on my pea coat. Heck, I even ate lunch outside in the sun on my lunch break at work — twice! (Once sitting along the wharf at the foot of Wall Street, overlooking the East River and Brooklyn Bridge, a sight of which I never tire.)
The snow and slush are gone from the sidewalks and streets. And you can smell that great, earthy smell in the air that the ground only releases after a long freeze — nature’s aromatic sigh of relief.
After the past few winters, there’s no doubt we’ve all become a bit softened to winters here in NYC. The past couple of winters have been duds. This winter is in many respects a ”normal” winter. It’s cold, but not frigid. We’ve had snow, but no blizzards. But it’s been just cold and snowy enough for just a long enough period of time for us all to go –whoa! Slow down, Mother Nature, you mean you’re gonna get all serious about this winter thang again?
Well, yes. If serious means “normal.”
Gloves, ear muffs and scarves have been common daily wear this winter. I think I only wore them sporadically last winter. I actually don’t even remember wearing my winter coat all that often last winter; my fall and spring jacket usually sufficed.
Honestly, I like winter to be winter. And I like spring to be spring…and so on. I like the norm. And I like, every now and then, the extreme, the thrill of the weather extreme. I don’t think I’m going to fare too well in the brave new world of climate change and globlal warming where, by all accounts, extremes will be the norm and the norm will be nostalgic memories.
I’ve gotten pretty excited the several times we’ve had snows here in NYC and the several times there have been snowstorms threatening. The reason?
It’s been a long time since it’s been normal. It may be quite a long time till it’s normal again. Looking forward, both climatologically and, well, in just about every category, I can’t help but wonder whether we’re teetering on the very brink of normality. And whereas some aspects of the world have clearly fallen precipitously and catastrophically off the edge, others, like this winter, remain balanced, it seems, ever so precariously on that edge, and my mind wanders into the dark woods of the prospect that we may be experiencing the last normal winters of mankind, the last pair of gloves in the streets, the last midnight scrape of the plows, the last forecast of the blinding white.
The last snows of New York.
Meteorologists Baffled As An Unusually Uneventful Super Storm Hits New York City
An inch of snow encroaches on an unsuspecting man waiting for a bus
New York, NY — New York City was hit by what the National Weather Service is calling “the most uneventful super storm ever to strike a major metropolitan area.”
The snowfall totals are staggeringly low for a storm of this magnitude: 2 inches in Central Park, 1.5 inches at Laguardia Airport, trace at JFK. Winds were reportedly sustained at 10 miles per hour with gusts to 15.
“It messed up my hair,” said Ethel Burnburger of Queens. “I forgot my hat, but I don’t think it would have blown off if I’d worn it.”
Nearly the entire city was functioning, Tuesday afternoon, and there were incredibly few delays at the airports. The MTA reported no delays in subway service.
“It was a normal day,” said Pete Riordan, a spokesman for American Airlines. “It was better than a normal day, actually…I think we were ahead of schedule.”
The storm started at daybreak and the unrelenting snow showers continued into the evening hours, creating treacherous slush on the sidewalks accounting for numerous slips and falls, although none of the major hospitals reported any noticeable increase emergency room activity.
Mayor Bloomberg’s office failed to return our first call and then when we called a second time they said that the Mayor had no official statement regarding the super storm, but an assistant to someone unidentified in City Hall recommended people spread plenty of salt on the sidewalk in front of their homes.
Meteorologist Chuch Matthau studies the historic Super Storm of 2009
The storm has left meteorologists baffled as to why such a potent storm translated into such incredibly boring weather.
“All of our computer models indicated a monstrous storm would hit New York City this morning,” said Chuck Matthau, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “We saw predicted snowfall rates of up to two inches an hour and a low that size would have been producing winds approaching hurricane force.”
But, according to eyewitness reports and official observations, nothing of the sort occurred today.
“It’s a historic storm because it didn’t happen,” said Mr. Matthau. “People will remember the Groundhog Day storm for years because it really should have been awesome, but it wasn’t. I mean for a storm of this magnitude, it really is a miracle it just sucked.”
Other meteorologists have moved on to attempting to explain the uncharacteristically mild storm conditions that were associated with the super storm.
“It’s possible our radars were picking up virga, which is a really annoyingly obscure word, but what it is is precipitation that evaporates before it hits the ground,” said Simon Haas of AccuWeather. When asked if an entire super storm could be mistaken for virga, Mr. Haas said: “It would be a first.”
Others doubted eyewitness testimony.
Apparently snow blinded New York City children thinking they're having fun in the snow
“A humongous storm bombed off the coast of Cape Cod today, there’s no doubt about that,” said Fitch Jones, a meteorologist with NOAA. “It would undoubtedly have caused blizzard conditions in the New York area. It’s quite possible that the snow fell so hard that New Yorkers were blinded. This can lead to dizziness and confusion and people can get lost easily, which is one theory as to why they all think nothing happened today. The whole city is quite possibly lost. It’s very sad. We should pray for them all.”
Donations can be made to the Red Cross.
The Crystal Ball Asks: “To Snow or Not to Snow…? That Is the Question” – Flirting with “The Big One”
Tuesday's potential snow event - some early predictions
Wow! What a wild ride it’s been for anyone following the development of a potential winter storm for the East Coast this Tuesday. To put it simply: the computer models that are relied on for predicting weather in North America have been all over the place on this storm, starting as early as last Tuesday and continuing straight through to today.
For an event that is only two days out at this point, the computer models are STILL frighteningly scrambled. Some of them call for a blockbuster snowstorm for the big cities of the Northeast. Others call for a much lighter snowfall. Even other call for nothing at all.
However, as of Saturday morning, there does seem to be some consensus emerging about this storm system. I stress “some.” What at first appeared to be a major storm that would affect the Ohio River Valley transitioned almost overnight to a coastal storm. Then, yesterday, all talk was of a coastal storm that looked like it would go too far out to sea and be much less potent than previously thought. Now, this morning, some computer models have pulled the storm back into the coast with a secondary low forming, which would deliver the major blow of snow. Still, other models downplay the event, with only light to moderate snows.
I am not going to attempt to make any attempt at forecasting this storm. There’s really no point to do so until the computer models come into better agreement. I thought the best way to give you some sense as to what the meteorologists are thinking out there is to quote them directly. So here we go:
First: Upton (NYC)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2009
NOW HAVE FAIRLY HIGH (60 PCT) CONFIDENCE IN A SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT…THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT THIS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION COULD PUSH SNOW TOTALS PAST THE
6 INCH THRESHOLD REQUIRED FOR ANY EVENTUAL WATCHES/WARNINGS.
Hey, at least there's NO rain/snow line!!!
Second: Taunton (Boston) — they are more conservative…
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2009
RIGHT NOW WE FEEL THE BEST FORECAST IS FOR A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE THOUGH AND
SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SO UNSTABLE THE LAST FEW DAYS…WE DO NOT
WANT TO RULE ANYTHING OUT. THIS INCLUDES THE MORE INTENSE AMERICAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF
THE REGION.
Now the blogs. Remember Henry Margusity from Accuweather, who, yesterday, made the call that the models would shift back westward since, he believed, a volcano in Alaska disrupted weather reports from an area where the main energy of the storm was developing? Seems he was RIGHT about the models shifting back westward. Is he right about what the outcome of that will be? Well, here he is this morning, thinking BIG:
In the back of mind, my concern is we get our Big Daddy after all and the big cities like Philly up to Boston end up with an arctic blizzard where it’s snowing hard, the wind picks up and temps fall into the low 20s and due to the high snow ratios, some one gets 12-20 inches of snow. That includes areas like Long Island back into eastern PA up to all of New England. I want to see one more run of the models before I pull out the BIg Daddy hat…
Temperatures plummet behind the storm.
That’s the most forceful language on this storm I’ve seen yet with regards to the sensible weather we could see out of it.
Meteorologist Brett Anderson of Accuweather marvels at the computer model inconsistencies:
In my 20 years of forecasting I cannot recall so much computer model flip flopping in regards to forecasting a major eastern storm. I am not saying that it has not happened (believe me, it happens a lot and we expect it), but I don’t remember anything like what I am seeing over the past 4 days.
And then he makes the “Big One” call:
If the ideas of the two U.S. models that came in this evening are accurate we are easily looking at the biggest snowstorm this season from the Washington DC area up through the NYC area with the potential for over a foot as the critical mid-level low pressure area forms just southeast of DC and then crawls northeastward. This track would also bring moderate snow up into central and northeastern PA, and the potential for heavier snowfall across a large part of New England.
It’s pretty remarkable to watch the gyrations of this storm forecast: one day it was going to be like the 1993 Superstorm, the VERY next day, it was nothing, a low going out to sea, the next day after that, it was making a comeback, but as a light to moderate snow maker for the major Northeastern cities; today, it’s beginning to regain it’s monster-like characteristics again. We can only hope that by tonight and certainly by tomorrow morning, the model guidance will finally fall into a consensus on this storm.
Right now? It’s literally any body’s guess. A blizzard? Or much ado about nothing?
Oh, one other important note: for once, they’re only talking SNOW for this storm, IF it materializes. No mixing or rain. Too good to be true?
Wild Model Swings in Predicting “Superstorm” Blamed on…A Volcano?
One of MANY computer models for Tuesday's storm.
Since mid-week, the weather bureaus have been a-twitter with talks of a major Nor’Easter, and some of the sites online (like the ever hyped-up Accuweather) making mentions of “the big one,” a “blockbuster,” a “superstorm.” Accuweather even went so far as calling it “The Groundhog Day Storm” as early as Thursday.
Now, let’s get some perspective on this. This storm isn’t even expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico until Sunday, be somewhere near Cape Hatteras by Monday and off the coast of Cape Cod by Tuesday. Nevertheless, the models all pointed to a whopper of a storm.
No problem there. I don’t really hop on the hype bandwagon. They can call it all they want and I won’t believe it practically till I see it (although I usually put pretty good stock in forecasts in the 2-day time frame.
So they can talk all they want about superstorms. What’s remarkable about this storm is the extreme divergences of computer forecasting model data that has occurred over the past three days. Originally, the models seemed to indicate a track well inland, bringing the low into the Ohio River Valley, dumping snows well inland and creating a heavy rain storm for the East Coast.
Foolishly early snow projections: Tuesday's storm snow totals as seen from last Wednesday!
Then, quite literally overnight, models began taking this storm wildly off this track, pushing it further and further eastward.
Yesterday, the talk was: a big storm is coming, but mostly rain for NYC and the big I-95 cities, as the storm was heading inland.
Today, the talk is: maybe a big storm?…Maybe all snow for NYC?…Maybe it will go out to sea?…Or maybe it will bomb out too late, in the Canadian maritimes?
What could account for a shift in the storm track of hundreds of miles literally overnight?
One interesting theory is: a volcano. Mt Redoubt, to be exact, a volcano in Alaska that looks like it’s ready to blow. Henry Margusity, a meteorologist who keeps a blog on Accuweather, explains:
“Thursday afternoon, a NOTAM was issued restricted flights around Mt Redoubt which is an active volcano about to blow….Now you need to understand that aircraft provide weather information along flight route called Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System or ACARS. That information goes into the computer models to help understand the weather aloft….
This is where things get interesting. It just so happens that the jet stream energy which will eventually produce the storm in the East is coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. When the NOTAM was issued
- Mt. Redoubt — making us re-doubt the weather forecast?
Thursday, most likely, flights were diverted around the Volcano, thus critical weather information from that area that goes into the models was missing, which would explain the sudden change.”
Interesting theory. Dr. Margusity goes on to speculate that “we will see the models go back to some western solution” as the energy that will create the storm moves on from the volcano and planes can gather more accurate information. Just how far west? He doesn’t say. But with some of the computer models taking the whole storm out to sea, a shift to the west at this point could translate into a snowstorm for the Northeast.
Will any of this pan out? As always in weather forecasting, only time will tell.
For the full Henry Margusity post, click HERE.
Can Anyone Explain This? NYC-Metro In “The Dead Zone”
The Dead Zone
It’s the strangest thing. As of about 4:00 this afternoon, every area surrounding NYC-Metro and Long Island has a Winter Storm Watch up…including coastal areas of New Jersey to our south. And NYC and Long Island have…uh…nothing. Not even a Special Weather Statement.
I’m wondering if perhaps the NWS in Upton is mulling this one over for, say, making a call on the most populous area of their territory? Just to sort of cover themselves if they’re, well, wrong about all the other areas?
I’d expect The Dead Zone to fill in with a Winter Storm Watch by 10 pm. Or for them to drop the WSW in other areas in the morning. Either way, we may be in The Dead Zone ALL NIGHT!!!!!! Boo!
The Meteorlogical Crystal Ball Says: Dull Weather to Linger a Few Days More Before It Gets its Mojo Back, Jan 25-31
Last week started out with a bang on Monday with a pretty decent and unexpected light snow event, but the rest of the week fell straight into a weather black hole, with no storm systems of note affecting the region since Monday’s snow. It was a bit of an abrupt cessation to several weeks of very active weather. But the Meteorological Crytsal ball did a pretty good job of calling it — “seasonable…yet less volatile.”
Temperatures did moderate and by Friday we were well into the 40s in NYC-Metro. Friday afternoon, I took a walk down to the piers on my lunch break. The sun was out and I felt perfectly comfortable sitting on a bench for 10 minutes with my coat unbuttoned. It felt tantalizingly like March weather.
This warm up didn’t last long. We were back in the 30s and teens at night this weekend. At 10 am this morning it was hovering just below 20 degrees at Claremont One Weather Station.
So where does the weather go from here? Have we entered a prolonged period of storm stagnation? Will the temps continue to moderate? Might winter’s fury have retreated like a dog with its tail between its legs?
Don’t count on it!
Wednesday's Weather: Flirting with the Rain/Snow Line
All sights are set to mid-week, Tuesday into Wednesday, for the formation of a coastal low that could bring a mixed bag of precipitation to NYC-Metro and New England. Right now it looks like the best chance for an all snow event is inland and to the north. NYC-Metro is once again dancing with the rain/snow line, and being this far out, it’s way to early to make any definitive calls. Computer models are also in some disagreement as to the timing and strength of this system. Yet, both Upton and Taunton are talking fairly aggressively about this system bringing “significant” snowfall and winter weather to the area.
Based on what I’m seeing right now, I believe most of Connecticut and northern New Jersey will get mostly snow from this system. NYC-Metro, Long Island and coastal locations I think will also see snow — but there could be a fair amount of mixing of rain and sleet and possibly a complete changeover to all rain. I’m going to lean with more snow than mixed precip or rain for those areas, however, as I’m pretty impressed with the temperature profiles for that time frame. This is a very early call, and I’m prepared to eat these words later, but that’s what I’m feeling right now.
This is not a system that will usher in any cold air, however. Another disturbance possibly in the Thursday – Friday time frame looks warmer, with temps flirting with 40, so I am leaning more towards rain and mixed precipitation by week’s end. However, this storm system is trending further out to sea, so we may just see spotty showers. It looks like fair weather going into next weekend with seasonable temperatures.
The weather may not have quite the bite that it has had over the past several weeks, but we’re right in the heart of the winter season when moisture and cold can meet and create big snows. Just when you thought it was safe to go back outside…!
HEAR YE! HEAR YE! BECOME A WEATHER PAGES WEATHER WATCHER!
I love it when people leave comments reporting the weather from near or afar. Become a WEATHER PAGES WEATHER WATCHER and leave a comment as often as you like, especially during the height of a g
ood storm.
How deep is the snow? How thick the ice? How heavy the rain? How blustery the wind?
Do you have a weather station of your own? Share your data! What was the lowest barometric reading during the last storm? Or your lowest nighttime temperature during this cold snap? Report it on The Weather Pages!
The Undeclared Snowstorm: New York City Snows All Day!
The downtown 1 train at 125th
This has to be one of the biggest meteorlgical goofs I’ve seen in a while.
Since 10 am, it has been snowing steadily in New York City, sometimes moderately. It is now 7:15 pm and the snow is still falling. On top of the two inches that snowed last night, looks like we’ve accumulated an additional 3-4 inches here in the city.
Even the National Weather Service in Upton had “oopsed” this one, albeit in technical weather speak:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 355 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
ONLY THING MODELS HAVE WELL DIAGNOSED IS TIMING /TRACK/INTENSITY
OF 5H VORT...VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT ON QPF (Quantitative Precipitaton Forecast)
AND SNOW...WITH 12Z GFS (Computer model) DOING THE BEST SO FAR WITH
WHAT IS ALREADY GOING ON...BUT EVEN THERE STILL IS NOT CAPTURING
FULL IMPACT OF SYSTEM.
City snowscape: 125th Street in the snow
By the radar, looks like the snow should shut down anytime now, but what an unexpected event! At least in NYC, the snow has a beautifying effect (until it melts and turns to sandy, brown slush). Just take a look at some of these pics I snapped today.
Hey, who knows, at this rate, maybe we’ll get another snowstorm this week!
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